International

Risk Circular

Alerts and Reminders

· Possibility of increased terrorist acts against U.S. and other Western interests, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa.

A Security Product from Protection Concepts Corporation Volume 5 Issue 211

Countries Covered in this Bulletin of November 7, 2000

Colombia u Gabon u India u Indonesia u Israel u Mexico u Nigeria u Pakistan u Philippines u South Korea

Main Story: Attack Ruled Suicide Bombing

No claim of responsibility received as investigation into bombing of newspaper offices continues in Karachi.

Pakistan (High Risk) – Though initially suspecting a car bomb, police in Karachi have now ruled that the November 6, 2000 attack at the advertising offices of the Nawa-I-Waqt and The Nation newspapers was a suicide bombing. According to new reports, a female suicide bomber with explosives strapped to her waist entered the building that houses the two newspapers, located across from Karachi’s Quiad-I-Azam mausoleum on Jinnah Road, and detonated the device. Three people, including the bomber, were killed while another four were injured in the blast which also caused damage to nearby buildings and vehicles.

No claim of responsibility has been received, but a spokesperson for The Nation stated that the papers had received prior threats and he blamed local officials for failing to provide enhanced security. The spokesperson refused to comment on the nature of the threats, as did Karachi’s police chief who stated that it was uncertain who might have been responsible for the attack. (BBC, Dawn)

Comment: A series of unclaimed bomb attacks have been reported throughout Pakistan over the past 12 months killing dozens of people and wounding even more. What is significant about this attack is that it is thought to be the first suicide bombing reported inside Pakistani territory.

Groups and organizations that base their cause and ideology on religious fundamentalism almost always carry out suicide bombings. Though there are a number of religious fundamentalist groups in Pakistan most base their cause on the liberation of the Indian controlled regions of Jammu and Kashmir and not on internal issues.

Other groups that have recently used suicide bombers in their on going campaigns include the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Israel, and an as yet unknown group in Yemen that staged an attack against the US warship USS Cole.

Colombia (High Risk) – Right-wing paramilitary leader Carlos Castano met with Colombia’s Interior Minister Humberto de la Calle on November 6, 2000 in what is believed to be the first meeting between Castano and a member of President Andres Pastrana’s Government. Castano released two of seven legislators that the right-wing United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) are currently holding captive.

Humberto later confirmed that the two leaders met in Colombia’s northern Bolivar Department and that while the meeting was designed for humanitarian purposes, Castano did offer his opinions as to the country’s on going peace process with the guerrilla group FARC. Castano had earlier stated that the legislators, mainly members of Colombia’s federal Congress, had been taken to force the government into abandoning a plan to exchange jailed guerrillas for kidnapped police and military forces.

Castano has demanded on repeated occasions that Pastrana either takes a stronger stance on the guerillas during peace negotiations or allow the AUC to enter parallel negotiations. Pastrana has refused to do either. (AP, RCN)

Gabon (Low Risk) – Political protests involving members of the federal opposition Gabonese Progress Party (PGP) were reported in the oil town of Port-Gentil on November 7, 2000. Preliminary reports indicate that barricades were erected around the city’s town hall after members of the PGP became involved in an internal dispute on November 6, 2000 over who should be mayor.

The PGP is the official opposition federally, but is the ruling power in the Port-Gentil region. This protest began after Gabon’s Interior Ministry removed Port Gentil’s mayor upon the insistence of the PGP leadership which cited internal differences. On November 6, 2000 a state court ruled in favour of the deposed mayor stating that she should be reinstated. (Reuters)

Comment: Though the situation has been reported as calm but tense PGP leaders have called a “stay at home” and civil disobedience campaign for November 7, 2000 which could also be extended.

India (High Risk) – An indefinite curfew was imposed in the northern Indian town of Mubarakpur, Andhra Pradesh State on November 6, 2000 following clashes between Shia (Shi’ite) and Sunni Muslims that have left at least 11 people dead and dozens of injured. The Times of India reported on November 7, 2000 that military troops are now patrolling the town’s streets and that 77 people have been arrested. Few details concerning the uprising have been released except that it is thought to be an extension of a previous dispute in January 2000.

Indonesia (High Risk) – A police spokesperson in Indonesia’s Riau Province on the island of Sumatra confirmed on November 7, 2000 that five oil wells operated by PT Caltex Pacific Indonesia (CPI) had been set on fire on the afternoon of November 6, 2000. According to reports and statements issued by the spokesperson a group of angry palm oil farmers set fire to wells in protest over what they believe is insufficient compensation for their land which Caltex acquired.

Emergency response officials at the site reportedly brought the fires under control within two hours and damage is estimated at approximately US$500,000. The incident occurred in Riau’s Rokan Hilir district. (Antara)

Israel (High Risk) / Occupied Territories [Palestine] (High Risk) – Israeli officials are reporting that a suspected Palestinian militant prematurely detonated explosives aboard his boat in waters off the Gaza Strip on November 7, 2000. According to reports an Israeli patrol boat was observing a fishing vessel which had been crossing over between Egyptian and Israeli waters. The patrol boat is reported to have begun making visual checks of the fishing vessel when it turned in the direction of the patrol boat and began to approach. Israeli officials stated that the fishing vessel exploded shortly after making its turn towards the patrol boat.

Israeli officials do not believe that Egyptian militants were behind the attack. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad has claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings in Gaza and Jerusalem over the past two weeks. Palestinian officials released a number of Islamic Jihad militants when violence began to escalate in the region in September 2000. (Reuters)

Mexico (Moderate Risk) – Officials in Mexico have issued a hurricane watch from Acapulco , Guerrero State to Puerto Angel, Oaxaca State as Tropical Storm Rosa continued to gain strength off Mexico’s Pacific coast. The watch was first issued on the evening of November 6, 2000 and the storm could come ashore as early as the evening of November 7, 2000.

The hurricane season usually begins in June and ends by November 30, 2000. Hurricanes do not typically affect Mexico’s Pacific coast after October. (AP)

Nigeria (High Risk) – An Indian expatriate was shot and killed on the evening of November 5, 2000 after having dinner with another Indian expatriate and the managing director of Nigeria’s Cornerstone Insurance in an upscale residential district of Lagos. According to reports, the victim, chief executive of Nigeria’s Equatorial Trust Bank, was shot four times while his Indian companion, also reported to be a chief executive of another Nigerian bank, was locked in the vehicle’s trunk. The attacker is reported to have driven off in the vehicle which was then left in a Lagos suburb. The managing director of the insurance company died after crashing his car into a ditch while attempting to escape.

No motive and no claim of responsibility has been received according to statements issued by Lagos police chief Mike Okiro. (ABC News, Reuters)

Comment: Though this doesn’t appear to be the case, violent crime is a serious problem in Lagos and other cities throughout Nigeria. Foreign expatriates and travellers are often forced to live under heavy security protocols including security trained drivers.

Philippines (High Risk) – A coalition of opposition groups attempting to pressure Philippine President Joseph Estrada into resigning from office announced on November 6, 2000 that all members of the coalition would participate in rallies and protests in Manila and 41 other provinces on November 14, 2000. A spokesperson for the coalition stated that political opposition, church, student and militant groups would be participating in the action throughout the country. (Philippine Daily Inquirer, SCMP)

Comment: The opposition has been attempting to force Estrada to resign since a scandal involving alleged illegal gambling pay-offs gained media attention in early October 2000. Since the scandal broke, Estrada has faced defections from his party and Cabinet and weekly protest actions including one attended by tens of thousands of people at Manila’s Edsa Shrine on November 4, 2000.

Travellers are urged to keep abreast of local issues and avoid demonstrations and rallies, particularly on November 14, 2000.

South Korea (Low [Watch] Risk) – Talks between management and labour leaders to restructure the debt-ridden Daewoo Motor company collapsed on or about November 7, 2000 with labour leaders refusing to agree to massive job cuts. Both sides have been given a deadline of November 8, 2000 to reach a compromise, or Daewoo could be declared bankrupt according to reports by the BBC.

On November 3, 2000 a number of banks and creditors in South Korea declared 52 companies “non-viable” while other companies, including Daewoo, were given time to restructure. Company’s like Daewoo and Hyundai Engineering have also been under considerable pressure from South Korea’s two largest worker’s federations which have refused to except massive jobs and have demanded that the government step in to support the companies.

Strike actions and other forms of protest are expected to begin on November 7, 2000. (BBC, Reuters)

Holidays, anniversaries, elections, and dates that have a historical potential for protesting, or terrorist or anti-social activity.

Russia (Moderate Risk) – November 7-8 (1917) – Marks the Bolshevik (October) Revolution that lead to the creation of the Soviet Union.

Egypt (High Risk) – November 8, 2000 – Third phase of parliamentary election.

Cote d’Ivoire (High Risk) – November 9, 2000 – National day of mourning for those killed during violence following the October 22, 2000 election.

Turkey (Moderate Risk) – November 10 (1938) – Death of Kemal Ataturk – founder of modern (secular) Turkey.

Worldwide – November 11, 2000 - Remembrance Day (Armistice Day/Veteran’s Day) – national holiday in Canada, USA, France and dependencies.

Poland (Low Risk) – November 11 (1918) – Independence Day (proclamation of an independent republic).

United Kingdom (Low Risk) – November 13 – Potential for renewed fuel tax protests (ultimatum deadline set by protesters in September 2000).

For information regarding this bulletin please call Mark Garner (403) 269-9469 or by e-mail at mdgarner@proconcorp.com